Topic 7: Risk analysis, likelihood, consequences and effects
Overview
This topic deals with the analysis of risks, that is the description of the potential effects, likelihood and consequences that a risk presents. This analysis of risks requires the combination of the results of the hazard description, the community/ environment description, the vulnerability assessment and the description of resultant risks. Figure 7.1 identifies where the analysis of risks fits within the emergency risk management process.
Figure 7.1
Emergency Risk Management Process
Source: Emergency Management Australia, 2000, Emergency risk management applications guide, EMA: Canberra.
Identifying the actual parameters on which to base a description of the potential effects that a hazard may have is the crucial step in this stage of the risk assessment process. In this topic we show you how to identify these parameters and transform them into a set of descriptions. From here we may then begin to evaluate the risks and prioritise them based on these descriptions, an activity we take up in Topic 8.
The topic concludes by illustrating how the quantitative risk assessment can be applied to industrial risk assessment to determine and describe the effects of potential hazards and subsequent risks.
Learning outcomes
After completing the work for this Topic, you should be able to:
- identify the likelihood and consequences relating to the risks identified from your analysis if hazards, the community and environment.
- derive a set of parameters to describe the potential effect of hazards from an analysis of the interaction between hazards, the community and environment;
- apply the procedures recommended to produce a description of the potential effects of hazards.