Parts of the risk assessment process
Let me briefly explain each part of the risk assessment process. Each of the parts involves a number of techniques and tools, and are covered in detail in Topics 3-10.
1. Establish the Context
The first step in the risk assessment process and is one of the most important. It allows you to determine how the risk assessment will be undertaken, the scope, limitations, policies, practices, and relationships that will influence and affect the way the assessment is carried out. Establishing the context of your risk assessment involves you defining the problem, establishing the emergency risk management framework around which your risk assessment will be undertaken and developing risk evaluation criteria.
Within this step of the process you should also be identifying the aim and objectives of the risk assessment, figuring out the tasks you will be performing and the resources needed to perform them. You also need to determine the scope of your risk assessment-are you looking at a geographical area, a community or an activity? What are the limiting factors/ boundaries that you need to set for the project? The answers to these questions could be likened to the formulation of a project definition within a project management process. Some of you may be familiar with project definitions. Future emergency management subjects rely on the initial definition of the project to be undertaken within that subject, so this will not be the last time you will come across this activity.
Finally, as an integral part of establishing the context and defining your risk assessment project, you will need to form a representative " planning group " or risk assessment committee . The formation of a representative planning group is essential to both risk assessment and emergency management planning. Without such a group it will be difficult, if not impossible, to gather the required information and to gain the commitment of key players.
2. Identify Risk
The second step in the risk assessment process. This requires a detailed investigation of the characteristics and interaction of the hazards, the community and the environment. Within this step of the process you will be identifying and describing your chosen community, the hazards which might affect that community and the environment of your community and hazards. As a part of your community, hazard and environmental descriptions, you should also determine or scope the vulnerability of the community. In order to profile a community's vulnerability and that of the environment, it may be necessary to identify appropriate vulnerability indicators, against which the hazards, community and environment can be analysed.
The first stage within the risk identification is the detailed and comprehensive description of the chosen community and its environment. A community and environment description is the relevant information about the people, property, infrastructure, natural and built environment that may be affected by the hazards that you will identify; or that may affect identified hazards. As you identify hazards as part of the next stage you may find it necessary to return to your community and environmental descriptions in order to provide more specific descriptive information relevant to those new hazards.
Following on from your initial descriptions of the community and environment is the identification and description of hazards . If you cast your mind back to earlier discussions in Topic 1, you may remember that hazards can be likened to the source of risk. Hazard identification concerns discovering the hazards that may exist in your community. Bear in mind, however, that you are unlikely to discover all of the hazards that exist.
Those that you identify as the highest priority concerns by your planning committee will now be the subjects of the continuing parts of your risk assessment process. |
Hazard description involves describing the hazards as they exist in your chosen community. The same hazards do not manifest themselves in precisely the same way in different areas, and in different communities, because there is a unique interaction between hazards, the community and the environment.
Once the community, environment, and hazards have been identified and described, the vulnerability of the community and environment can be determined by analysing the susceptibility and resilience of the community and environmental elements described. Here we look for sections of the community that are less resilient or more susceptible to the hazards. As with hazard descriptions, the vulnerability of communities is unique to that community because of the interaction between hazard, community, and environment. To assist the emergency risk manager determine the vulnerability, indicators can be used. Such indicators may include the proximity of hazards, the socio-economic standing of the community element and the awareness of the community regarding the hazards.
Once the community, environment and hazard have been identified and described and the vulnerability scoped, statements of risk can be generated. These risk statements will identify where a hazard might possibly affect an element of the community or environment. Describing such effects is an account of what is likely to be the consequences of the hazards you have described occurring in the community that you have described. Another way of looking at it is to say that you will be listing the interaction consequences; the effect of the hazards on the community if they were to interact. If the hazards were to occur in the community what would be the effects or consequences?
I have laboured this point because it is important and could cause you concerns if you get it wrong. I want you to get it right! There are a number of ways to generate risk statements and these will be more closely discussed in future topics.
Risk Analysis is the third step in the risk assessment process. This step provides information that the emergency risk manager will use in the evaluation of risks. This information will also be very useful when determining the various options available to treat the risks.
A key aspect of analysing the risk is determining the predicted likelihood and expected consequence of the risk.
Risk Evaluation is the fourth step of the risk assessment process. This step of the process enables the emergency risk manager to compare the risks against the previously determined risk evaluation criteria (Refer back to the section on establishing the context), set the risk priorities and decide on the acceptability of the risks.
Risk prioritisation is the determination, based on the interaction consequences of predicted effects, which hazards/ risks should be addressed first, and which hazards/ risks can be either addressed later or ignored, based on your description of their likely effects. Prioritisation of risks should be based upon the likelihood and the consequence. There are a number of prioritisation methods available and some of these will be examined in later topics.
Risk Treatment is the fifth step of the risk assessment process. This step of the process enables the emergency risk manager to reduce the risks by modifying the characteristics of the hazards, community and environment. The risk treatment step of the process is to all intents and purposes a problem solving/ decision making activity. Following on from the previous risk identification, analysis and evaluation, the emergency risk manager can now identify the options available to manage and reduce the risks. Each option can be evaluated and the most appropriate treatment option selected. Following on from the selection of the best treatment option, the emergency risk manager then prepares plans and strategies that document how the selected risk treatment options will be implemented.
It may be decided that there is a need for more than one treatment option for a particular risk. The identification of these treatment options is the linkage between the risk assessment and other emergency prevention and preparedness activities. Planning, training and education, and monitoring and evaluation should be based firmly on the results of your risk assessment. The risk treatment plan at this point is not a detailed listing of what will appear in the strategic emergency management plans or tactical standard operating procedures. You will undertake those tasks in EMG 103 Emergency Management Planning 3 (development of an emergency management plan) and EMG 201 Emergency Management Planning 4 (development of SOPs, training needs analysis and an exercise). All you are required to do at this stage of the process is to identify the risk treatment options or to use a term previously associated with hazard analyses, develop your emergency management planning objectives. Some of you may find it easier to understand if we talk about drawing conclusions from your risk assessment and producing recommendations for future risk management action. This risk treatment implementation plan or planning objectives or conclusions and recommendations should indicate what are the priorities with regard to the production of emergency management plans. One thing you MUST remember at this stage is that we DON'T want you to start writing the actual emergency management plans yet.
Monitor and Review is an essential aspect of the risk management process. It ensures that the risk management process remains on track and relevant to the project and our planned activities. Throughout our risk management activities there is a constant requirement for us to monitor:
- the risks,
- our risk treatment plans and strategies, and
- the systems that we put in place to manage the risks.
There are a number of methods that can be used to ensure that the process of monitoring and review is carried out effectively, efficiently and with the best opportunities to identify weaknesses in the program and determine solutions and enhancements. Processes that can be used are:
- Project management review methods
- Emergency risk management project review methods
- Review of emergency events
Questions relating to monitoring and review that the emergency risk manager and his emergency risk management committee or planning group should be asking throughout the project include:
- Are the project objectives being met?
- What is the progress to the project objectives?
- Are there any deviations from the planned project progression, and if so, what is the cause of the deviation?
- What are the options to correct the deviations?
- Is the project's context still relevant and appropriate?
- Has the project's context changed or altered?
- Have the hazards, community, environment or risks changed in any way?
- Are the risk treatment strategies previously identified and implemented still appropriate/ effective?
- Have there been any emergency events in the community or neighbouring communities recently?
- Has the community's vulnerability altered, if so, why?
- If an event has occurred, were its consequences as predicted by the risk assessment?
- Were the estimates of its likelihood accurate?
- Were the risk treatment options identified instrumental in reducing vulnerability or the consequences of the event?
- Are other treatment options now obvious in light of the event having occurred?
During your own risk management project you will need to continually monitor and review your activities to ensure that your project maintains momentum and relevance to your community's need and the risk management project's overall aim and objectives.
Communicate and Consult. Throughout the risk management project there is an ongoing, continual need to communicate and consult at each step of the process. The process of communication and consultation is two way. It requires interaction between stakeholders, ie. Consultation.
Effective communication and consultation results in all stakeholders and parties with vested interests in the community and risk management project having an understanding of what decisions have been made, why those decisions were required and also they have been provided with an opportunity to have their say and input into the risk management process.
The perceptions of risk varies from person to person and is influenced by our own assumptions, conceptions, knowledge and understanding. The differing perceptions of stakeholders need to be identified and documented to ensure that any impact on decisions is understood and documented.
The process of communication and consultation is discussed at the end of the reading in the next activity. It provides some considerations that emergency risk managers should bear in mind when communicating and consulting with stakeholders throughout their emergency risk management projects and activities. Bear these considerations in mind when you are implementing and undertaking your own risk management projects.
