Potential problem analysis
Potential problem analysis is a technique for developing preventative and contingent actions for problems that may arise in a given situation. It can be used in any professional field, its value being that it:
- systematically breaks any problem down into its components,
- aims to prevent the actual cause(s) of the problem, and
- facilitates the development of contingent actions.
Applied to emergency management, it can lead to innovative and effective prevention, preparedness, response and recovery strategies.
The technique involves:
- identifying a hazard or hazardous situation;
- listing potential problems associated with this;
- determining causes of each problem;
- developing preventative actions;
- developing contingent actions and determining trigger events for these actions.
Preventative actions are the means by which we can reduce the probability of the problem occurring, whilst contingent actions are the means by which we can reduce the seriousness of a problem if it does occur. Preventative actions are obviously better than contingent actions, however, as with some hazards, there are often occasions when problems cannot be prevented.
You need at least two things to initiate a contingent action: a trigger event and a person responsible for initiating the action. The trigger event should tell you when action is required, and could be an alarm warning or the emergency itself. The responsible person should be capable of initiating the action, and this person's responsibility should be pre-determined, that is determined before the problem occurs.
For instance, in a very simple example: when the flood water [hazard] reaches the two metre level at the bridge [trigger], the landowner [responsible person] telephones his three neighbours so that they might move their stock to high ground [contingent action].
A potential problem analysis can be performed by one person alone, but much better results will be obtained from using your planning group. The more people involved in identifying the potential problems, the more problems are likely to be identified and strategies developed to manage those problems. The planning group will also have a greater commitment to the actions or strategies if they have been involved in their development.
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So how does it work? Let's go through an example. As an example, let us examine fire in a multi-storey office building as our hazard. You can use the blank potential problem analysis (PPA) chart (Table 4.1) as we go. (You may wish to either print this blank table for use in drafting your assignment or copy it to a separate document and work on it there.) |
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When you have worked through a potential problem, as we have done with 'smoke', then you should go back and work through each of the other potential problems in turn.
So you see, the technique of potential problem analysis is a powerful tool for developing emergency management strategies. It will produce the best results when used with a planning group, because you can get input from people with a variety of knowledge and points of view, and members of the group will inspire each other to develop new ideas. Equally important, the group will have the responsibility for implementing the preventative and contingent actions, therefore they should be involved in and committed to their development.