Individual fatality risk levels

 

We mentioned that one way of expressing risk is in terms of risk to the individual . (But note that we also exposed some pitfalls to this approach.)


Activity 4.3

learning portfolio activity

What I would like you to do now is a short exercise to see how you rank various risks.

I am going to ask you to assess the individual fatality risk levels for the following ten hazards:

  • meteorite strike;
  • drinking alcohol (average amount - all effects);
  • lightning strike;
  • struck by motor vehicle (pedestrian);
  • travelling by motor vehicle;
  • travelling by aeroplane;
  • accidental poisoning (total);
  • storm and flood;
  • smoking (20 cigarettes per day - all effects);
  • accidental poisoning (venomous plants and animals).

It might strike you as odd that I am asking you to do this without any statistics-but that's life. We make perceptual judgements every day of our life without sufficient information.

I would firstly like you to rank the hazards in order of likelihood, and then estimate the individual fatality risk levels for each hazard in turn. You can use the table below, and I have started you off by filling in a hazard in an appropriate place. Remember that an individual fatality risk level for a hazard of 1 x 10-6 per year means that in an average year one person in a million dies from that hazard.

It is important that you have a go at estimating the risk levels at this stage. We will provide you with some figures later. So do not go scurrying for books or the internet !! The point of the exercise is to compare your perceptions with 'reality' and to get you to think about why they may differ.

Table 4.4: Ranking and estimating risks
Rank order
(from most likely to least likely) 		Hazard Individual
fatality
risk level

1

 

 

2

 

 

3

 

 

4

 

 

5

accidental poisoning (total)

18 x 10-6

6

 

 

7

 

 

8

 

 

9

 

 

10

 

 

Print this activity

 

The order in which you have ranked these hazards, and the individual fatality risk levels you have attached to them are based upon your perception, knowledge and experience.

All that aside, below are tables showing some representative individual fatality risk levels from various places. You may wish to compare your rankings and estimates of individual fatality risk level to the figures in the following tables.


Table 4.5
Risk to individuals in New South Wales , Australia

Hazard

Individual fatality risk level

Smoking (20/day - all effects)

5000 x 10-6

Smoking (20/day - all cancers)

2000 x 10-6

Cancer (all causes)

1800 x 10-6

Smoking (20/day - lung cancer)

1000 x 10-6

Cancer (lung)

380 x 10-6

Drinking alcohol (average amount - all effects)

380 x 10-6

Travelling by motor vehicle

145 x 10-6

Accident at home

110 x 10-6

Swimming

50 x 10-6

Struck by motor vehicle (pedestrian)

35 x 10-6

Owning firearms

30 x 10-6

Homicide

20 x 10-6

Accidental poisoning (total)

18 x 10-6

Travelling by aeroplane

10 x 10-6

Fire and accidental burns

10 x 10-6

Therapeutic use of drugs

2 x 10-6

Storm and flood

0.2 x 10-6

Accidental poisoning (venomous plants & animals)

0.1 x 10-6

Lightning strike

0.1 x 10-6

Meteorite strike

0.001 x 10-6

Source: Adapted from Higson, D.J. (1989). Risks to individuals in NSW and in Australia as a whole, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Sydney.


Table 4.6
Risks to individuals in other countries

 

Hazard

Individual fatality risk level

Smoking 10 cigarettes a day ( UK )

5000 x 10-6

All natural causes, age 40 ( UK )

1200 x 10-6

Any kind of violence or poisoning ( UK )

300 x 10-6

Influenza ( UK )

200 x 10-6

Accident on road (driving in Europe )

125 x 10-6

Leukemia ( UK )

80 x 10-6

Struck by motor vehicle (pedestrian-USA)

50 x 10-6

Struck by motor vehicle (pedestrian-UK)

50 x 10-6

Leukemia

50 x 10-6

Earthquake ( Iran )**

43 x 10-6

Playing field sports ( UK )

40 x 10-6

Accident at home ( UK )

38 x 10-6

Accident at work ( UK )

23 x 10-6

Floods ( Bangladesh )**

20 x 10-6

Taking contraceptive pills

20 x 10-6

Radiation-working in radiation industry ( UK )

17.5 x 10-6

Homicide ( Europe )

10 x 10-6

Floods (northern China )

10 x 10-6

Floods ( USA )

2.2 x 10-6

Accident on railway ( Europe )

2 x 10-6

Bushfire ( Australia )

1.0 x 10-6

Earthquake ( California )**

0.5 x 10-6

Bites of venomous creatures ( UK )

0.2 x 10-6

Hit by lightning ( UK )

0.1 x 10-6

Wind storm (northern Europe )**

0.1 x 10-6

Rupture of pressure vessel ( USA )

0.05 x10-6

Sources: ** The Cambridge University Human Casualty Database.

'Living with risk', The British Medical Association Guide, John Wiley & Sons, London, 1987.

Griffiths, D. (1987). Developing corporate hazard and risk control standards for the oil and chemical industries, ICI Australia Pty Ltd, p. 5.

 

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