Why plan?
There are still those who may not believe emergency planning is necessary. Such people may argue that:
- everybody knows what to do;
- emergencies are unpredictable, and therefore you cannot plan for them;
- people don't follow plans in emergencies;
- the development of emergency plans will unduly worry the public.
If you embark on an emergency planning project, you may hear these objections, amongst others. It is worthwhile for you to take time to consider your reply to these objections.
Let us look back at the four basic objections I suggested might be made in regard to an emergency planning project, and consider some answers.
1. Everbody knows what to do
In a well-prepared community or organisation, it is possible that all those with an emergency management role will be aware of that role.
But, has the role of these people been thought through in the overall context of the tasks that need to be done? Possibly not. If this is the case, the role of some people may run counter to the roles of others, and there may be conflict in responsibilities or expected outcomes.
Have all the tasks required of an effective, efficient and appropriate emergency strategy been allocated? Without emergency planning it is highly likely that many fundamental and necessary tasks will not have been allocated, and it may only be realised during or after an emergency event that the tasks even exist.
People may well know their own role and tasks, but are they aware of the role of others with whom they must interact in performing their own role? Without emergency planning and appropriate training, it is unlikely that people will be aware of the manner in which they should interact with others.
Have all of the command and control functions and potential problems been sorted out? Without emergency planning, it is likely that there will be confusion over command and control arrangements during an actual emergency.
How are people who are newly appointed to a job going to be informed of their emergency management responsibilities? A written plan is the best way of beginning their education.
2. Emergencies are unpredictable, and therefore you cannot plan for them
I will let someone else answer this objection.
WHY DEVELOP EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLANS IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY?
the aim is to reduce uncertainty through anticipation of what the situation requires ... planning is not a cure-all. All disasters present in some measure unanticipated contingencies and difficulties. In those cases, action has to become innovative and emergent. However, planning will clearly improve any organised response effort by identifying what in all probability must be done, how it should be done, and what resources will be needed. In this manner, organised response can be made more highly predictable and efficient.
Dynes, R., Quarantelli, E. and Kreps, G. (1972) A perspective on disaster planning, Disaster Research Center, Ohio State University, p. 63.
It is precisely because emergencies are difficult to predict and the effects are uncertain that we perform hazard analyses and develop emergency plans. This applies not only to response, but also to prevention, preparedness and recovery.
3. People don't follow plans in emergencies
I believe it is common for people not to refer to written emergency plans during the more frantic moments of actual emergencies. However, if they have a basic understanding of the content and intent of a well-prepared emergency plan, their actions are more likely to be appropriate.
You see it is not the written plan that is important—it is the planning process itself that is important. The planning process is a tool that develops an understanding of what is required in the people who participate in the process.
4. The development of emergency plans will unduly worry the public
This is the type of objection that might be expected of a politician. But, let us face it, if there is a realistic threat to life, property and the environment, we really have to do something about it. The planning process is designed to achieve this.
Given that you have convinced people that emergency planning is necessary, you may want to play your trump card. Planning is all about protecting life, property and the environment—this is the bottom line, the outcome that is desired. What evidence can you present to prove that planning increases this protection?
Figure 1.2 illustrates one aspect of the value of emergency planning, that of effective warnings. The horizontal scale indicates the number of people at risk from a dam failure; the vertical scale indicates the number of actual deaths from recorded dam failures. The two curves on the graph represent the number of deaths due to dam failure, for a given size of the population, with and without sufficient warning. The data for this graph comes from actual events. The warnings were due to appropriate emergency planning.
Figure 1.2: Potential deaths from dam failure and extreme flood events—with and without warning systems
Source: Brown, C.A. and Graham, W.J. (1988). Assessing the threat to life from dam failure, Water Resources Bulletin, 24(6), 1303-9.
The graph clearly demonstrates that effective and appropriate emergency planning will reduce harm to people, property and the environment.