Scenario considerations
- Within Australia the conventional advice when threatened by bush fire is to take cover in your nearest safe haven. The nearest safe haven in most cases will be your own home or maybe that of a close neighbour. It has been recognised that asking people to drive along smoke affected roads that could become blocked by burning trees is to put them into an environment which is a probably a greater threat than staying put.
- A different scenario to consider is that of a large, densely inhabited suburb threatened by a toxic cloud. Would it be better to get them to stay put, seal their doors and windows with wet towels and turn off any air conditioning or within the given time organise them all to leave and be transported to a safe place up-wind?
- Another scenario is that of a flood; the inhabitants of a two story house say they are safe. The flood will not reach them on the second storey so they want to stay put. To try an evacuate them through the floods might be risky.
But without power, drinking water, sewerage systems or fresh food the insidious threats to their well-being could be as hazardous as the more direct threat of the flood.
Although I have said that the conventional thinking currently in Australia is to seek refuge in a safe haven when faced by a bush fire/forest fire, I will not say staying put or leaving is the right solution all the time for scenarios such as the three described previously. It is a matter of judgment at the time; and we hope that when the time comes to make that judgement, it is an informed judgement - a rational decision, taking into consideration all the appropriate criteria and information available at the time.
It would be appropriate at this time to have a change of pace and read what Nick Carter says in his annex to chapter 17.
When the state of technology permits accurate prediction of a threat, evacuation is an effective pre-impact means of reducing danger to a population. When accurate predictions are not feasible, such as in earthquakes, etc. evacuation may still be one of the best ways of sustaining the survival of the population.
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Video Watch the video excerpt from “Towyn – A caring response to ongoing disaster”. This video was produced by the Emergency Planning College in the UK following the February 1990 flooding of the northern Welsh town of Towyn and the subsequent evacuation of over 6000 people. Of these, 2000 received aid and support at rest/evacuation centres with over 650 being accommodated at those rest/evacuation centres for an extended period of time.
Given what you now know and understand regarding the issues concerning evacuation, I now want you to list what you believe are some of the key issues that would need to be addressed when evacuating people. Record your list and comments in the activity document provided in the link below. Save your work when completed.
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I would expect that your list included such things as:
- Who am I thinking of evacuating?
- How many of them are there?
- What are the demographics of this group. i.e. age, gender, health, ethnicity, mobility, cultural and religious diversity and needs?
- What are the implications of the demographics for the evacuation?
- What are the dangers posed by the evacuation?
- How can I minimise the threat of these dangers?
- How will we minimise the harm if the threats posed by the evacuation become a reality?
- Where are we going to take the people?
- How are we going to get them there?
- How will their need for food, fluids, toilets, sleeping, medical attention be provided for?
- How will we cope with their needs to give and receive information?
- How will we cope with the needs of other people wanting information about the evacuees?
- How will we resource and account for the continuing need for provisions?
- How will we sustain the management and staffing of the evacuation centres?
- When do we take them back and to what?
- How long will they be evacuated for?
- How do we get them back?
- What do we do with those who do not want to go back?
- What do we do with those who want to go back but who have nothing to go back to?
- What is the scope of the evacuation? Where do we stop?
This list is not complete but if you asked these sorts of questions and then were able to answer them with some assurance, your chances of having managed effectively the evacuation aspect of any event will have improved.
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Read I want you now to read Reading 11.2. Consider the information that we have worked through; then use the information you have collected to start thinking about the evacuation aspect of the emergency/disaster event you have selected for analysis in this subject. We still have a couple of sections to examine relating to other aspects of evacuation in this Topic. These will raise additional issues for you to consider. |